Traders
Continue to Wait for Bernanke to Speak
Market Recap:
SPX big winners were Sealed Air Corp (SEE) 10.5%, Wellpoint Inc (WLP) 7.28%, and Sears Holding Corp (SHLD)
4.52%. SPX big losers were First Solar Inc (FSLR) -5.86%, US Steel Corp (X)
-3.03%, and Devry Inc (DV) -2.72%.
SPX five day big winners are Hudson City Bancorp Inc (HCBK) 10.96%, Sealed Air
Corp (SEE) 8.24%, and J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCP) 7.5%. SPX five day big
losers are Big Lots Inc (BIG) -21.65%, Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) -13.76%,
and US Steel Corp (X) -13.%.
New Ten Day Highs: URBN, BXP,
BF/B, CCL, CI, CCE, CL, CAG, STZ, COST, EMC, ESRX, FITB, FHN, FRX, GIS, HRS,
HUM, HBAN, IGT, KR, LIFE, LOW, M, MHP, MWV, JCP, PCL, PFG, PLD, RTN, SNI, SEE,
SHW, SBUX, SRCL, TLAB, TDC, TJX, USB, VTR, WAT, WLP, WY, AMZN, GOOG
New Ten Day Lows: ADBE, APD, AKS,
ATI, ALL, AEE, ADI, APOL, AIZ, AVP, BHI, BLL, BMS, XL, BRK.B, CAT, CBG, CINF,
CTAS, KO, CNX, ED, CSX, CMI, DE, DELL, XRAY, DV, D, RRD, DOW, DUK, ETN, EQT,
EXC, EXPD, FE, FLIR, FLR, F, GPC, GT, HAL, HSP, TEG, INTC, ISRG, ITT, JEC, JNJ,
CLF, LNC, LLTC, MAT, MDP, MET, MUR, NBR, NU, NUE, NYX, OXY, OI, PCAR, PH, PKI,
PEG, PWR, RSG, COL, R, SLB, SRE, SO, LUV, SE, SWK, TE, TWX, TIE, TSS, UPS, X,
JASO, UNM
Volume & Breadth Indicators
For the SPX Index there were 278 components advancing and 210 components
declining. On the NYSE 3,113 issues were traded with 1,799 advancing issues and
1,175 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.53 to one advancing. There were 117 new
highs and 23 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 90 while the
five day moving average of New Lows is 18 and the ten day moving average of Net
Advancing is 134.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 1.23 to one. The closing TRIN was
1.27 and the final tick was 168. The five day average of TRIN is 1.3 and the
ten day average of TRIN is 1.06. The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.03% today
while the SPX gained 0.08%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -25.31%
below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 0 sessions ended with volume greater
than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 14
sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume
was 63.2% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 88.7% of
the last 10 day average and 95.8% of the previous day’s volume.
Looking at the NYSE 15-second tick data, the total tick for the day was 99,000
and the average tick for the day was 64. There were 9 ticks greater than 600
and 1 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and
no ticks more extreme than -1000.
Moving Average and Support/Resistance
Indicators:
58.8% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 50% are above their
10 day average, 64.2% are above their 20 day moving average, 75.8% are above
their 50 day moving average, and 63% are above their 200 day moving average.
There were no
significant moving average crossovers today. Our moving average
Power Rating is 79 of a possible 100.
Sectors on the Move:
Sectors stronger than the SPX for Wednesday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +30%.
- Financials -- Outperformed the SPX by +11%.
- Technology -- Outperformed the SPX by +14%.
- Health Care -- Outperformed the SPX by +19%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Outperformed the SPX by +39%.
Sectors weaker than the SPX for Wednesday:
- Energy -- Underperformed the SPX by -69%.
- Industrials -- Underperformed the SPX by -4%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -32%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -34%.
Checking the sectors of
the SPX:
The Basic Materials sector
had 17 advancing issues and 12 declining issues. 8 components are on an
uptrend (2 new uptrends today) and 22 components are
on a downtrend (1 new downtrends today.) The sector is
on a Sell signal
and closed below the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed .02% above the
20-Day average.
The Energy sector had 12 advancing
issues and 33 declining issues. 14 components are on an uptrend (3 new uptrends today) and 31 components are on a downtrend (7 new
downtrends today.) The sector is on a Sell signal and closed below the
daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed
.25% above the
20-Day average.
The Financials sector had 44
advancing issues and 33 declining issues. 55 components are on an uptrend (11
new uptrends today) and 26 components are on a
downtrend (6 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the
daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed
.73% above the
20-Day average.
The Industrials sector had 30
advancing issues and 28 declining issues. 22 components are on an uptrend (5
new uptrends today) and 38 components are on a
downtrend (3 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Sell signal and closed below the
daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed
.15% above the
20-Day average.
The four 'risk
sectors' totaled 103 advancing issues and 106 declining issues today with 21
new uptrends and 17 new downtrends. 45.8% of Risk
Sector components are uptrending.
The Technology sector
had 54 advancing issues and 24 declining issues. 44 components are on an
uptrend (8 new uptrends today) and 54 components are
on a downtrend (1 new downtrends today.) The sector is
on a Sell signal
and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed .99% above the
20-Day average.
The Consumer Staples sector had 21
advancing issues and 20 declining issues. 30 components are on an uptrend (1 new uptrends today) and 61
components are on a downtrend (1 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Sell signal
and closed below the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed -.26% below the
20-Day average.
The Utilities sector had 12
advancing issues and 17 declining issues. 5 components are on an uptrend (2 new
uptrends today) and 68 components are on a downtrend (1 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal
and closed below the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed -1.56% below the
20-Day average.
The Health Care sector had 34
advancing issues and 18 declining issues. 35 components are on an uptrend (8
new uptrends today) and 75 components are on a
downtrend (no new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal and closed above the
daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed
.26% above the
20-Day average.
The Consumer Discretionary sector
had 54 advancing issues and 25 declining issues. 51 components are on an
uptrend (6 new uptrends today) and 83 components are
on a downtrend (4 new downtrends today.) The sector is on a Buy signal
and closed above the daily pivot. The sector 5-Day average closed .93% above the
20-Day average.
Based on the SPX
sector data, we are on a Sell for the SPX and the Russell 2000.
What We Learned from Wednesday's Action:
Wednesday was session 3 to close above the 5 DMA, session 3 to close below the
10 DMA, session 25 to close above the 20 DMA, and session 34 to close above the
50 DMA. This was also session 23 for the 5 DMA to close above the 20 DMA. One
early sign of a sustainable rally or pullback is often a close above or below
the 10 DMA. The SPX closed 1.7 points below
the 10 DMA.
The SPX 5 DMA is 1408.69, 10 DMA is 1412.19, 20 DMA is 1404.9, 50 DMA is
1374.03, 100 DMA is 1360.23, and 200 DMA is 1336.42.
On Wednesday the SPX traded both below and above the opening range. 52.8% of
the SPX closed up from the previous close; 53.6% closed higher than the open. During
Wednesday's session the SPX gained 1.17 points from open to close. The SPX
intraday trading range was 7.53 points. The 5-Day average intraday trading
range is 9.39 points, the 10-Day average is 9.51 points, and the 20-Day average
is 9.26 points. The trading range is contracting. The 5-Day SPX gain is -0.21%,
the 10-Day gain is 0.35%, and the 15-Day gain is 0.59%.
Note: The Opening Range Breakout is one of the simplest
day trading set-ups to understand. The first hour of the trading day is the
most volatile. Bears and bulls are battling it out in the stock market, trying
to show you who’s going to be in charge for the day. If we break out of
that trading range, it's telling us that new buying or selling is impacting
traders' assessments of value. Looking back at today’s breakouts also
helps us grasp sentiment going forward because when a clear trend is
established it often carries through for several sessions.
Looking Ahead:
The Market Environment for Thursday is -2. Greater than three is bullish and
less than negative three is bearish. The short-term trend appears to be
sideways. Mel's 5-Day Oscillator
is 28 and Mel's 10-Day Oscillator is 45 (below 35 is oversold
and above 65 is overbought.) Based solely on the technicals,
our bias is slightly bearish for Thursday's session.
This remains
a tough market to trade. We closed our 8% of account value TNA hedge today, in
yesterday at $56.40 and out today at $57.95 for a +2.75% gain. For a hedge,
this worked very well as our exit today was just three cents off the high of
the session. We know many traders find it difficult to enter a long side trade
when we are looking for lower prices but we did a similar successful move last
week when we dumped three layers of SPXU at breakeven in order to step aside
and let the rally move by us before re-loading some on the short-side. We find
maneuvers such as this extremely useful and protect us as much as possible from
being wrong too long.
Overall, this was yet another session that did very little to change any technicals. Eleven of the last fifteen sessions have seen
the SPX move only three points or less, pretty much freezing the technicals in place. This is a market that wants to go
lower but the hopes of additional QE from
Our Market Internals data remains with a Bearish bias but market breadth has
been outperforming the SPX this week and we are watching that closely.
Thursday, August 30
Economics
Earnings
Before:
Ciena (CIEN) EPS -2c
GDP rose 1.7%, in line with expectations. Pending home sales rose 2.4%, more
than the expected 1.0%. Oil inventories added 3.8 million barrels. Last week
they lost 5.4 million. On Thursday we will get initial jobless claims and
personal income.
Thank you for reading. Think on it, trade on it, and be well.
-----------
"Mel"
http://www.advicetrade.com/
http://melsinfo.com/
http://www.marketspath.com/
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Continue to fight. We do not fight alone. Continue to live.
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